‘We project to score runs again and feel optimistic we will,’ Atkins said in January
As we await the latest post-season side show from Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and his general manager sidekick, Ross Atkins, why not rewind the greatest hits of the past two such sessions?
OK, maybe not.
There is one notable comment from Atkins on Jan. 3 of this year that resonates, however, an assessment that in hindsight dramatically reinforces the miscues of the most recent off-season work for the American League East doormats.
“We feel like (the 2023 season) was just a blip in terms of run scoring,” Atkins said in the aftermath of the failed Shohei Ohtani pursuit and setting the table for the remainder of a highly underwhelming off-season. “I think we have plenty of power to drive in runs. It doesn’t mean we’re not open to adding another power bat … (but) we have plenty of power.
“We project to score runs again and feel optimistic we will.”
A blip it certainly was not as in the best way to measure such proclamations, given that in both power and runs scored, the Jays were historically bad in 2024. And they were reflective of a downward trend that began in earnest two seasons ago.
Not that either were guaranteed long-terms answers, but Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded away following the 2022 season and no adequate replacements were brought in to replace that production as the offensive slide began in earnest.
The 846 runs from 2021 led to the 775 of 2022 and the 746 of 2023, all of which served to set the table for the abomination and alarming drop of this just completed last-place campaign.
How bad was it for a Jays team that finished 14 games below .500, 20 games behind the AL East champion New York Yankees and 12 games out of a wild-card spot?
The 671 runs that the Jays managed to scrape across the plate in their 74-88 season were the fewest they’ve scored since 1997 — two years before their current offensive leader, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., was even born.
In other words, what Blue Jays fans witnessed this past season was an historically bad attack for a franchise that, in recent decades, rarely has been so benign offensively.
To find a full 162-game season worse than 1997, you have to run the time machine all the way back to 1982, when they scored just 651 times. It’s as blunt as can be: In the past 42 seasons, the Jays have scored fewer runs than they did in 2024 just twice.
The impotent “attack” conspired against the Jays in so many ways. It affected starting pitchers, who as the season wore on became well aware that allowing more than two runs could spell trouble given that in almost half of their games, Toronto hitters managed three runs or fewer.
It sculpted opposing team’s defensive/pitching game plans, as the rotation arms were well aware that on most nights they really only had to worry about one bat in the Toronto lineup — that of No. 27.
In one-run games, the Jays too rarely had the pop to persevere, putting up a shoddy 19-30 record in such contests.
Back to the power, for a moment. Beyond the bullpen struggles, the lack of power from Blue Jays hitters was arguably the most glaring weakness in the team’s attack and further evidence of Atkins misread on what needed to be done.
The Jays hit just 156 home runs in 2024 as the lack of thumpers in manager John Schneider’s lineup was a glaring shortfall. It was a third consecutive season of decline in the long ball category and a drop of more than 100 (!!!) since the 262 of 2021.
To find a season with fewer Jays home runs than this just-finished effort, you have to rewind back to the ugly 126 they managed to bang out in 2008.
Dusting off the greatest hits, we rewind back to Atkins’ comments on Oct. 11, 2022, days after the stunning two-game sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners. It was one of the first inklings of the “internal improvement” narrative from the front office, one that has yet to pan out.
“One of the things I feel confident about is our ability to get better internally,” Atkins said at the time. “I feel strongly that we are going to have development that occurs from our major league roster. I feel like there’s a lot of winning ahead for this group.”
How did that work out, baseball fans?
As we fast forward to Wednesday’s latest Shapiro-Atkins sermon, one wonders what the company line will be. Pitching and defence? Internal improvement? Or some grand new vision to replace the recent failed proclamations?