Statisticians have predicted the exact day they believe that global will run out if we continue using it at current rates.
And, alarmingly it is much sooner than many of us may have expected with the predicted date likely to be within many of our lifetimes.
According to Worldometer, which provides what it calls online “realtime global statistics” on an array of subjects, oil reserves will be gone by Thursday June 14 2063 – so just less than 39 years time, or 14,139 days to be precise.
The website states: “14,139 days to the end of oil (-39 years). Assumption: If consumed at current rates
“Sources and info: World Proved Reserves of Oil and , Most Recent Estimates – Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Data from BP Statistical Review, Oil & Gas Journal, World Oil, BP Statistical Review, CEDIGAZ, and Oil & Gas Journal.”
It means that if more oil reserves are found the date could be extended.
Worldometers predicts oil reserves will be used in under 39 years at current rates (Image: Getty)
World leaders are also trying to reduce the use of fossil fuels so the rate of consumption could also slow, extending the date, as the world tries to tackle climate change.
Currently the use of oil is actually rising year on year and this is not expected to change until 2030 at the earliest.
So how reliable is Worlometers?
It was launched by Russian IT programmer Andrey Alimetov in 2004 before he hit the age of 20 and sold a year later for $2000 and now the site is owned by American-based Dadax LLC, of which little details are known.
It initially focussed on global population statistics and their have been claims over the reliability of its statistics and sources.
However, in 2020, after the pandemic struck, it became one of the most searched websites after it started doing daily updates on -19 deaths and cases across the globe.
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The UK Government even used Worldometer figures at daily press conferences from March 30 to April 14 that year.
When when there were allegations of a flaw in its reporting of the figures due to seemingly not taking account of the difference in forms of reporting processes between countries, this ceased.
Not everyone agrees on its predicted end date for oil reserves, but estimates only vary by about ten years.
Other experts have predicted oil reserves could run out as early as 2052.
The renewable energy specialists at states on its website: “It’s estimated that known oil-deposits will run out by 2052. Realistically, we may never run out of oil because, given the depth of the Earth’s core, there will be new wells to discover.
An oil refinery plant from industry zone in Immingham in the UK (Image: Getty)
“That said, it’s highly likely that the practice of mining such depths will become economically unviable. Prices for fuel will rise – as they have always done – and ultimately we will look for alternative, cheaper means of producing energy.
“The price of oil will increase due to heightened labour costs, while the supply itself will wane. This will have a knock-on effect, whereby homeowners will realise that renewables are far cheaper than fossil fuels.
“We are hurtling towards this scenario. According to the Oil Market Report, which was commissioned by the International Energy Agency, demand has slowed in the last quarter after a significant uptick throughout 2016 and 2017. This means that it’s due another surge, and this should be even higher than previous years.
“And let’s also remember that the worldwide transport industry is driven (no pun intended) solely by oil, which means that it’s being consumed at a far quicker rate than other fossil fuels.”